统计研究 ›› 2021, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (5): 3-14.doi: 10.19343/j.cnki.11-1302 /c.2021.05.001

• •    下一篇

我国FISIM物量核算方法改革与实践检验

贾小爱   

  • 出版日期:2021-05-25 发布日期:2021-05-24

The Reform and Practice Test of China’s FISIM Volume Accounts

Jia Xiao’ai   

  • Online:2021-05-25 Published:2021-05-24

摘要: FISIM名义总产出受价格因素的影响远高于其他行业,其物量核算尤为必要。然而,我国现行FISIM物量核算方法存在明显缺陷,无法真实地反映FISIM的实际发展状况,亟需改革。本文对比存量缩减法与产出指标法的优劣,发现存量缩减法在我国更具有实践可操作性,该方法不仅实现了FISIM现价核算与物量核算的有效衔接,而且可以使FISIM中的价格因素得以完全剔除。从而,建议采用存量缩减法对我国FISIM物量核算进行改革。就我国的基础数据而言,本文采用存量缩减法测算FISIM物量产出,并发现选用费舍指数相对更优。本文通过该指数测得我国2007-2018 年的年度非链式与链式FISIM物量总产出及其增长率,发现FISIM增长率变化相对比较稳定,变化趋势与GDP增长率基本保持一致,且略高于GDP增长率,这与近十年来我国金融行业快速发展的实际情况一致。

关键词: FISIM, 物量核算, 存量缩减法, 产出指标法

Abstract: The nominal output of FISIM is much more subject to price than any other industry, so the FISIM volume account is more than necessary. However, China’s FISIM volume accounts have obvious defects and are unable to truly reflect the actual development of FISIM, which needs urgent reform. This paper compares the advantages and disadvantages of the deflation method and output indicators method. It shows that the deflation method is more practicable in China, which not only makes FISIM volume accounts to match with current price accounts but also eliminates the price factor in FISM. Therefore the paper suggests the deflation method to reform China’s FISIM volume accounts. According to the practice test with China’s basic data, it is better to choose Fisher Index to construct the FISIM volume index. Then, the non-chain volume output, chain volume output, and growth rate of China’ s FISIM from 2017 to 2018 are measured with this index. It shows that the growth rate of FISIM is stable and slightly higher than GDP growth and its change trend is consistent with GDP growth. These results are consistent with the rapid development of China’ s financial industry in the last decade.

Key words: FISIM, Volume Accounts, Deflation Method, Output Indicators Method